Coinbase’s adjusted net income rises 66% on crypto holdings gains, revenue misses estimate

Coinbase’s third-quarter profit jumped on the value of its crypto holdings even as revenue missed Wall Street’s estimate, a split that matters for anyone valuing exchange earnings. The company’s push into prediction markets, tokenized assets and AI agents is already generating revenue, with prediction markets surpassing $200 million annualized.

• Adjusted net income reached $719 million, up 66% from $433 million a year earlier, on crypto gains.
• Revenue of $1.20 billion missed the $1.233 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG.
• Prediction markets topped $200 million annualized and traders rose 60%; watch whether that pace holds.

• $719M Adjusted net income in third quarter, versus $433 million a year earlier
• 66% Year-over-year rise in adjusted net income, from $433 million
• $1.20B Third-quarter revenue, short of the $1.233 billion LSEG analyst consensus
• 39% Bitcoin’s rise in quarter to September 30; recent price near $80,809

Coinbase Global posted adjusted net income of $719 million for the third quarter, up 66% from $433 million a year earlier, CNBC reported. The San Francisco-based platform released the results on Thursday (October 29). It said it earned $2.51 a share, though it was not immediately clear whether that figure compared with the 6 cents per share Wall Street analysts had estimated.

Coinbase revenue of $1.20 billion misses the $1.233 billion LSEG estimate

Revenue of $1.20 billion trailed the $1.233 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG, a shortfall of about $33 million.

The profit surge came from the value of Coinbase’s volatile cryptocurrency investment portfolio, which can swing wildly even when the composition of the underlying holdings is little changed. The portfolio gained in the third quarter as the digital asset market recovered. Bitcoin, often used as a gauge for all crypto assets, rose 39% in the three months ended Sept. 30, a smaller move than the 66% rise in Coinbase’s net income, and it recently changed hands at roughly $80,809.

Coinbase’s own earnings release headlined all-time high Coinbase One subscribers and prediction markets surpassing $200 million in annualized revenue.

Coinbase for Agents launched in early October as prediction market traders rose 60%

In the third quarter, Coinbase deepened its push into non-crypto products, including AI integrations for traders, tokenized real-world assets and prediction markets. In July, VP of product Max Branzburg told CNBC that the company would debut an “everything exchange” spotlighting tokenized stocks and other real-world assets, derivatives trading, prediction markets and early-stage token sales. Coinbase then introduced Coinbase for Agents in early October, supporting users who want ChatGPT, Muse or other AI agents to manage their portfolios or research and trade various assets.

Coinbase also widened its prediction market offerings, making more event contracts available. Prediction markets revenue grew to more than $200 million on an annual basis, and the number of traders on those markets increased 60% compared with the second quarter.

Coinbase’s $2.51 per-share figure still lacks a clear comparison with the 6-cent estimate

The gap between $2.51 a share and the 6-cent analyst estimate was not explained in the initial reporting, and it was not immediately clear whether the two figures were measured on the same basis. Until that is settled, the headline earnings beat cannot be confirmed, while the revenue miss against LSEG’s $1.233 billion consensus can.

The reporting includes no analyst reaction to the revenue shortfall and no Coinbase explanation of it.

The BlockWest read. We read this quarter as a balance-sheet story more than an operating one. Profit built on portfolio value moves with bitcoin in both directions, and revenue still missed estimates. Allocators weighing the stock should separate the investment gains from the prediction market, subscription and AI agent lines Coinbase is building, because those are the ones it controls.

The first open item is how Coinbase’s $2.51 per share squares with the 6-cent analyst estimate, which neither the company nor CNBC had clarified. The second is whether prediction market trader growth, now 60% above the second quarter, holds when Coinbase reports its next quarterly results.

BlockWest is a news publication. Nothing here is investment advice. Read our disclaimer and editorial policy.