Polymarket traders no longer expect Fed rate hike this month

Prediction-market traders no longer see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its meeting later this month, a shift that comes as a top Fed official signals no urgency for further tightening even as mortgage rates climb to levels unseen since 2023. The repricing on Polymarket follows remarks from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and a renewed bond-market selloff that has pushed borrowing costs higher across the economy.

• Polymarket forecasts no longer project a Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting later this month.
• The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 16 meeting, its first hike in three years.
• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.6% on Wednesday (September 30), the highest level since November 2023.

• 3.75-4.00% Fed’s benchmark rate range after its September hike
• 7.6% average 30-year mortgage rate, highest since Nov. 2023
• 70 bps rise in mortgage rates over the past month alone
• 25 bps size of September’s hike, the first in three years

Odds tracked on Polymarket no longer show traders expecting the Federal Open Market Committee to raise rates at its next meeting later this month, according to Watcher Guru reported. Watcher Guru first flagged the shift in a post on X on September 30, 2026. The change follows comments from Fed officials suggesting there is no immediate case for another increase.

Jefferson says no rush for another hike

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that he backed last month’s rate increase but sees no urgency to move again soon.

Any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair, Federal Reserve

Jefferson delivered the remarks in a text prepared for an address at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. His comments reinforce the sense among traders that the Fed is prepared to hold steady this month after moving in September, even as inflation and labor-market data continue to evolve.

Mortgage rates climb to levels not seen since 2023

Even as the Fed signals patience, borrowing costs for consumers have kept rising. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 7.6% as of Wednesday (September 30), according to Mortgage News Daily, up roughly 15 basis points from the prior week.

That is the highest reading since November 2023, and mortgage rates have climbed 70 basis points in the past month alone amid an ongoing global bond selloff.

The Fed’s September 16 move, a 25-basis-point increase to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, marked its first rate hike in three years. The jump in mortgage costs this week had raised fresh concerns that the central bank might need to tighten again, concerns that Jefferson’s remarks and the Polymarket repricing now appear to ease.

Warsh’s Fed holds steady despite White House pressure

The Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh has resisted calls from the Trump administration to cut rates further, and its broader policy path remains difficult to read. Last month’s hike, the first since the current tightening cycle ended, has not been followed by any signal of a second move this month.

Watcher Guru’s reporting does not include comment from the White House or from Warsh on the administration’s rate-cut push, leaving that side of the dispute unaddressed in the current coverage.

The BlockWest read. A Fed that hiked once in September and now shows no appetite for a repeat leaves mortgage borrowers, not traders, absorbing the pain of the bond selloff. For allocators watching prediction markets alongside swaps pricing, the gap between a 7.6% mortgage rate and a central bank in no hurry to move again is the real story: financial conditions are tightening without the Fed lifting a finger.

Attention now turns to the FOMC’s meeting later this month, where Polymarket’s current pricing implies officials hold rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, with Jefferson’s emphasis on data-dependence leaving open whether a fresh inflation or labor print could still shift that calculus before the decision.

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