Bitcoin breaks 13-year streak with positive September after August gain

Bitcoin is on pace to end September higher for the first time following a positive August since 2013, a pattern that has held for more than a decade. With two trading days left before the month closes, the token’s performance is drawing attention from traders watching for a shift in bitcoin’s seasonal tendencies just as global bond markets turn volatile.

• Bitcoin has gained about 7% in September after rising 25% in August, according to CoinDesk reported.
• A positive September close would give bitcoin three straight monthly gains from July through September and push the third quarter up more than 40%.
• CoinGlass data put bitcoin’s average fourth-quarter gain at roughly 77%, historically its strongest period of the year.

• 7% Bitcoin’s September gain so far versus August’s 25% rise
• $84,000 Current bitcoin price amid rising global bond yields
• 40%+ Projected Q3 gain if September closes positive
• 77% CoinGlass average Q4 bitcoin gain across prior years

Bitcoin is trading near $84,000 as September winds toward its close on Wednesday (September 30). Every August-to-September transition since 2013 has produced a losing September, and this year’s rebound would break that thirteen-year pattern if the current gain holds through the final trading days.

A 25% August rally sets up a rare back-to-back gain

Bitcoin’s August advance of 25% was unusually strong on its own, and the fact that it has been followed by further gains in September marks a departure from the asset’s recent seasonal behavior. A positive close this month would extend bitcoin’s winning streak to three consecutive months, covering July, August and September.

That would also put the third quarter up more than 40%. CoinDesk noted it would be bitcoin’s first positive third quarter since 2013.

CoinGlass data point to a historically strong fourth quarter

Seasonality has favored bitcoin bulls heading into the final three months of the year. CoinGlass data show the fourth quarter has averaged a roughly 77% gain historically, the strongest quarterly seasonal pattern bitcoin has shown.

That average sits well above the 40%-plus gain bitcoin is on pace for in the third quarter. Whether the pattern repeats depends heavily on how macro conditions evolve in November and December.

Rising yields and a possible Anthropic IPO could test Q4 momentum

The macro backdrop complicates the seasonal setup. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, has risen above 100 and is approaching its year-to-date high.

Oil prices holding above $90 a barrel are adding to inflation concerns. Gold, often viewed as a competing haven asset, fell about 3% on Monday (September 28) to just above $4,000 an ounce.

Two additional catalysts loom over the fourth quarter. Anthropic’s reported plans for a November initial public offering could pull investor capital toward a major new equity listing, though the timing and size of any offering have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November are also expected to add volatility as investors weigh the policy outlook.

The BlockWest read. For allocators, the real signal is not the September print itself but whether it holds against a 10-year yield above 5.2% and a MOVE index near its highs for the year. Bitcoin decoupling from its own seasonal losing streak while bond markets tighten would matter more to institutional treasuries than the headline percentage gain, since it tests whether recent inflows can absorb a genuine rates shock rather than a calm one.

The next concrete test comes Wednesday (September 30), when September’s close will determine whether bitcoin actually breaks its pattern that has held since 2013, with attention then shifting to the timing of a possible Anthropic IPO and the November U.S. midterm elections as the fourth quarter’s main sources of volatility.

BlockWest is a news publication. Nothing here is investment advice. Read our disclaimer and editorial policy.