Bitcoin falls to $82,776 after mixed US economic data on inflation and hiring

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday (September 29, 2024) after two US economic reports pointed in opposite directions on where rates are headed. Cooler hiring data suggested room for easier policy, but a sharp drop in consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations argued the opposite case.

• Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday, testing the $84,000 support level.
• US job openings were little changed at 7.1 million in August, down from a revised 7.3 million in July.
• Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August.

• $82,776 Bitcoin’s Tuesday low versus the $84,000 support level
• 7.1M August job openings, down from a revised 7.3M in July
• 68.4% share of consumers expecting higher rates, up 5.2 points
• $31M Sept 28 spot Bitcoin ETF inflow, smaller than each of the five preceding completed sessions

Bitcoin’s slide followed a split set of Tuesday releases, according to CryptoSlate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported cooler August hiring, while the Conference Board’s household survey showed rising anxiety over inflation and interest rates. Neither report alone explains the price move, and a recovery above $84,000 now depends more on the path of Treasury yields and fresh ETF demand than on any single data point.

Job openings cool to 7.1 million as consumer confidence drops to 81.9

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary showed August openings little changed at 7.1 million, against a July figure revised up by 64,000 to 7.3 million. Hires held at 5.2 million, quits were unchanged at 3.1 million, and layoffs and discharges were essentially steady at 1.6 million. The report points to somewhat softer labor demand, a trend that could ease pressure on interest rates if it continues.

The Conference Board’s September confidence index told a different story. It fell to 81.9 from 88.6 in August, with the Expectations Index dropping for a third straight month to 63.6.

Consumers’ views on rates and inflation ran counter to a simple soft-jobs, lower-yields narrative. The share expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months rose 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%, while average expected inflation over that horizon climbed to 6.1% and the median rose to 5.1%, both up 0.3 percentage point from August. The survey ran from September 1 to 23, a window that captured the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate increase to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs draw just $31 million as Treasury yields hold above 5%

The latest posted Treasury daily par yield curve data put the 10-year yield at 5.24% and the two-year at 4.92% as of September 28, a reading that predates Tuesday’s releases. Those yields remain a meaningful competitor for a coupon-free asset like Bitcoin. Softer hiring would help Bitcoin more if subsequent inflation data give yields room to fall.

US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $31 million on September 28, according to Farside Investors data. That total was smaller than each of the five preceding completed sessions, a sign that buying had already slowed before Tuesday’s numbers landed.

Neither the prior day’s ETF total nor a live Bitcoin quote captures how investors responded to Tuesday’s job openings and confidence data. Stronger inflows in coming sessions would suggest buyers are returning despite elevated yields, while continued softness would leave a lower-yield backdrop as the more likely trigger for any sustained move back above $84,000.

August PCE data due Wednesday, September payrolls follow Friday

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