Dot plot

The dot plot is part of the Summary of Economic Projections, released after four FOMC meetings a year. Each dot represents one participant’s view of where the policy rate should be at the end of the current year, the next few years and in the longer run. All 19 participants submit projections, including nonvoting regional bank presidents, and the dots are anonymous.

Markets read the median dot as a signal of the committee’s expected policy path, and compare it with futures pricing. Shifts in the median, or in the dispersion of dots, can move bond yields and risk assets. The projections are conditional on each participant’s economic outlook and are not commitments, so they often change as data evolves. The longer-run dot is read as an estimate of the neutral rate.

For allocators, the dot plot helps gauge how far the Fed’s expectations differ from market pricing. Example: if the median dot shows two cuts next year while futures price four, bond yields may rise as markets adjust toward the Fed’s projection.